October 28, 2020
Trump Is Going to Win This Election
The White House had a moment of celebration last night as the Senate voted in another Trump appointee to the Supreme Court… But now it’s back to the campaign.
Getting Amy Coney Barrett through is a huge victory… But there’s no rest for the weary. While Barrett’s successful ascension to the highest court generates substantial enthusiasm for the GOP base and is Trump’s third pick on the high court, there’s an election underway and the polls look bleak for Trump’s chances.
With Election Day exactly one week away, most of the pollsters have Biden winning every major swing state except Florida and Ohio. If you think the polls have it right, Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin are essentially a lost cause at this point. North Carolina has a razor-thin margin favoring Trump, and Pennsylvania looks to be within the margin of error – but favors Biden.
Most of the national news media and the punditocracy appear confident in a Biden win, and the Democrat contender’s campaign seems to be in “run out the clock” mode this week. I’m here to tell you, they’re wrong…
Their bare-minimum campaign will end up looking like the dumbest political blunder since Hillary Clinton decided there was no need for her to pound the pavement in Michigan during her 2016 campaign. And just like 2016, the liberal intelligentsia is in for another massive shock this time.
Donald J. Trump is going to win reelection.
It’s not going to be a landslide… I’d guess the final tally will be something like 272 electoral college votes for Trump to 262 for Biden. One state may decide this race.
If that turns out to be correct, it would mean the polls were overwhelmingly wrong… or at least always within the margin of error, but always leaning Biden within that margin. Either way, it will come as a massive shock to the consensus-driven world of political prognostication.
Pennsylvania looks like it will be an absolute dogfight, and there may even be a delayed final election tally as a result. If my prediction is correct and Trump wins, the GOP map of victory will look very similar to what it was against Clinton in 2016, plus Democrat wins in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa.
Despite the polls, there are reasons it looks like Trump can still pull this off…
Biden is underperforming Trump in some key demographics, notably the Latino community. Biden can count on higher levels of support from the Black community than Hillary did, but he needs to make some gains among Latinos in this final stretch if he’s going to get to the required 270 votes.
The biggest reason for optimism that Trump will win are the intangibles that pollsters have a tough time capturing… For one thing, Trump is going all out in the last days of his campaign for reelection, doing multiple events a day and taking his pitch for four more years to a long string of 10,000-plus person crowds.
And while anecdotal information is dangerous in a political season, word from the campaign’s ground game in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania is that there is a fire in the belly of the Trump base that will defy expectations on election day.
Will there be a “silent majority” that speaks out in favor of the president with their votes on Election Day? The MAGA faithful certainly believe so. In what has been one of the most challenging years the country has faced in decades, there’s a growing sense that Trump has turned the corner and has the momentum right now. Biden is largely “hiding in the basement,” as the president points out, allowing the mainstream media to do most of his campaign work for him.
Incumbency is also a powerful advantage, and Trump is a master of turning his enemies’ attacks to his advantage at just the right moment. Absent some truly outrageous last-minute ambush, Trump will spend his final days of the campaign focused on radical Democrat positions on fossil fuels, extreme lockdowns, and higher taxes. Those issues may play well in Santa Monica and Manhattan for Biden, but energy-industry workers in Pennsylvania would like to keep their jobs – and that may be one of the deciding factors that prevents Biden from taking Trump’s job.
Then there’s just gut feeling… this deep sense that Donald Trump will blow away the doubters and haters and make political history once again.
He was able to accomplish what felt like a political miracle in 2016, and he’s going to need something similar to get it done this time around.
Believe it or not, he’s going to pull it off.
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Executive Editor, American Consequences
with the Editorial Staff
October 28, 2020