August 16, 2019
75,000 Have Watched This Documentary
By Steven Longenecker, Publisher
Patrick W. recently wrote us a fantastic e-mail…
Thank you so much for making the video that so vividly shows our future as a country… We may survive the 2020 election but that would only be a short delay. I’m doing my best to prepare personally but worry for my children and grandchildren.
I feel it is a special privilege you’ve given me to share this short documentary on my Facebook page and for this I thank you.
Thanks for writing in, Patrick.
More than 75,000 folks have watched our documentary so far. We hope it will make a difference in the lead-up to the 2020 election.
Because the dangers we warned about are already coming to pass…
But today, we turn our attention to an even more pressing issue.
The global recession countdown is on… and if history proves to be a guide, we have a year and a half before it hits.
Over the past week, the S&P 500 Index has been following new worries about the U.S. Treasury “yield curve.” It’s the difference between short- and long-term interest rates. When it flips – or “inverts” – bear markets and recessions have inevitably followed.
Justin Brill has followed the yield curve closely for several years now in his daily Digest. And this week, he noted:
In recent months, we’ve already seen some parts of the yield curve invert. However, the most widely followed measure – the difference (or “spread”) between the yields on 10-year and two-year U.S. Treasury notes – had not yet done so.
In other words, while these moves were concerning, the most important recession and bear market “countdown” had not officially started.
Until today, that is…
This morning, the “2-10” spread fell to as low as -0.02% before recovering slightly…
This is the very first time that the spread has “inverted” since the global financial crisis 10 years ago.
A crisis is likely coming… the only question is when. As Justin notes:
All told, there have been seven inversion cycles since 1965. According to Canaccord Genuity analyst Tony Dwyer, a recession didn’t arrive until 19 months later on average. Stocks have peaked roughly 18.5 months later on average… and they’ve gained an average of more than 21% over that time.
That puts us on track for a recession in late 2020 or early 2021… just in time to get a new “promise the world” president in office, if the Democratic Party has its way.
We suspect that the Democrats’ response to any recession will only accelerate the crisis… And lead to a true disaster.
Because if you think that the problems exposed by the 2008-2009 financial crisis have gone away, I’m afraid that you’re mistaken.
U.S. mortgage debt just hit a record, eclipsing its 2008 peak. Seniors, in particular, have more household debt than they did in the financial crisis. And economists say that “zombie consumers” – people who have taken advantage of easy lending conditions to borrow money that they may struggle to pay back – are rising.
The government is spending more than ever before, at $3.7 trillion so far this year… leading to a record deficit. More than $16 trillion in debt around the world trades at a negative yield. And investors in the U.S. today are waking up to the danger that even as 30-year Treasury yields are at record lows… they could still go lower.
What could possibly go wrong in 2020? The answer is everything.
To learn more about these issues, please read The Battle for America: Why the 2020 Election Will Cause the Biggest Financial Crisis in U.S. History. You can get your copy here.
At the center of his investigation are eight long-term care insurance deals that GE executed. The report alleges that GE has been hiding “massive loss ratios” and “exponentially increasing dollar losses.”
Similar (though smaller) anti-government protests swept Hong Kong in late 2014… But by the time the dust settled at the end of 2015, the crisis had opened up one of the best buying opportunities I’ve seen…
Assuming farmers do abide the “critical numbers” produced by ERS economists, it’s time they stop… Experts in government are dangerous precisely because it’s unlikely they’re experts.
While Philadelphia police officers were dealing with a gunman who shot six of their own during a standoff at a home in the Nicetown-Tioga section, cops also had to deal with being taunted by some bystanders.
Such breaks can occur in those who hang themselves, particularly if they are older, according to forensics experts and studies on the subject. But they are more common in victims of homicide by strangulation.
And let us know what you’re reading at [email protected].
Publisher, American Consequences
With P.J. O’Rourke and the Editorial Staff
August 16, 2019